Guest blog 2

Returning to my guest blogger. A much more in depth look at climate change.

You may not agree with all of this, but as I have mentioned on twitter recently, it is all part of the conversation and getting people talking about climate change.

 

Long term graphs show CO2 levels do not influence temperature. Short term graph will only show immediate effects but are not long enough to show trends. Climate changes in recent years are due to ecological damage changing currents and jet streams. Burning forests will cause some additional heat retention. CO2 is not a greenhouse gas. It can’t hold heat.

Lots of misinformation. Climate change is not man made or even influenced by man although weather patterns can be altered. Heat is not caused by man or even greenhouse gases, it’s an entirely cycle. The disaster we might cause is not due to gases, it’s ecological.

1. Too many people.
2. Too many chemicals used to grow food.
3. Soil is deteriorating alarmingly, 25% less productive than 50 years ago.
4. Fields are too large leading to erosion, machinery is too heavy.
5. Encroachment on non cultivated areas is increasing likelihood of disease to man and crops.
6. Current Chinese epidemic is probably caused by bats being sold in markets illegally as food. (Note: this was speculated 3 weeks ago by our guest – Jon)
7. Sars virus, again Chinese, caused by crossover from bats to cats to humans. Current virus 90% match and same family.
9. Had another virus in the Middle East for 10 years now. Again, caused by crossover from wild animals.
10. Composition of atmosphere will be cause by cutting down trees and intensive farming.
11. As much greenhouse gas is given off by Soya and Rice as Animals.
12. In the 1950s we had smog in London so the clean air act was introduced. We (UK) are now one of the cleanest countries in the world.
13. China and India are now polluting the same way as we did in the previous centuries but to a larger degree.

There’s more. But let’s digress.

Long term versus short term to show correct correlation.
Short Term
The petrol driven car was invented in 1885 and production started in 1886. Due to low running costs they became widely available. It is now being superseded by electric vehicles.
Long Term
The first electric powered vehicle was invented in 1828. Practical vehicles became available in the 1870s. An English vehicle was in production and on the streets in 1884.
In 1899 Electric Cars were preferred to Gas and Steam Powered ones as they were quiet, easy to drive and didn’t emit smelly pollutants.
Between 1900 – 1912 a third of all vehicles in the USA were electric.
In 1908, Porsche invented the first Hybrid.
In 1912, Henry Ford mass produced the Model ’T’, gave it a starter motor and cheap oil was found in Texas. Bye Bye electric.
In 1970 due to rising oil prices electric cars were again in fashion. 10 years later they’d gone again due to range issues.
The first self powered black cabs were electric and were in London in 1897.
The electric trolley buses ran for 30 years in London but were discontinued due to cheaper diesels and problems with them coming off the overhead cables.
Conclusion
We could have a graph that showed petrol cars peaking and being replaced by electric. Longer period though would show electric being replaced by petrol. But outside factors drove this. Oil was cheaper with longer range. Oil companies became very rich so bought upon patents for electric and shelved them. Sometimes longer periods give better information and show the trends more clearly.
Stats are just that and what you put in or leave out changes the answer which is why everyone should be telling the truth. Greta is lauded but she is just reading out scripts her Dad writes for her. He went to school. He’s not a Climatologist. Climate scientists are being ignored if they go against the ‘accepted’ position despite being more than qualified to have an opinion. Naturalists such as David Bellamy have been thrown off TV because they dared say there is no climate crisis. Australian bush fires are given amazing coverage despite this happening every year and normally burning larger areas. Yes, the way they spread and concentrated was unusual and unfortunate but caused due to a 1º degree rise in temperature? Think about that. 1º. Caused because Australia mines coal? Jesus, we must all be dead in this country then! No. Caused by the Australian government banning controlled burning because they wanted all the dead wood to help the insects in the forests. That’s like piling lorry loads of wooden crates in every space in the forest. Oh, and let’s not forget the current haul of 16 people accused of arson that have already been arrested there.
There’s a natural cycle with all things. Oil got dear, electric now in vogue. Coal is polluting the air so more and more green energy is produced. Nothing will speed up the process but tech will solve most of these problems in a very short time. My problem is that by muddying the waters by not telling the truth and the whole truth we will end up making more bad environmental decisions. Oil will run out so a replacement will need to be found. If, in a rush, that replacement means we have to cut down more trees to dig up more minerals to make the batteries and the steel then will we be better off? Amazon forest is already 24% cut down. Where are 80% of the worlds lithium supplies? Mmm. Bolivia, Argentina and Chile. Isn’t that down by the Amazon? See what I mean. The EU gave grants to our farmers to cut down trees to make fields more productive. That has caused erosion, soil degradation and flooding. The Spanish have destroyed the mesa so we can have more strawberries and broccoli. They’ve made huge dust bowls and it’s now so bad that you’re not allowed to dig the weeds upon as it’s the only thing holding it together. I have not bought Spanish produce for 15 years because of that. Cause and effect. India had the largest manufacturer of solar panels but as they were undercutting the US companies part of their trade deal was to stop selling them. Good or bad? On the face of it disastrous. But the energy required to make then outweighs the benefit of having them.
Politicians and multinationals should stop trying to make money out of climate. The petrol engine should be allowed to die naturally, pricing it off the roads will add to the energy costs. Tech should be allowed to move at it’s own pace and everyone should stop worrying.
Example: China has a huge pollution problem. In some cities cars are split by number and each section can only drive for 3 days a week. Yet, they are the forerunners in building apartments blocks with integral forests on every level. They have to innovate to solve the problem.
So, are we going to die? Maybe, but the reason won’t be climate change. My prediction is this, in order of likely event.
1. World wide epidemic wipes out 90% of population. Remainder struggles on but tech gets left behind. By the time they have worked out how to survive only 5% are left and in 50 years nature has recovered and obliterated almost all man made objects.
2. Asteroid hits the Earth and wipes out 40% of population instantly . Another 57% die in the following 3 years of darkness. Nature recovers and we are just a memory.
3. Unlikely but, nuclear war. 30% die within a month. Nuclear winter wipes out another 50% in the following few months. Nature recovers and takes over. We learn to farm again.
4. Sun turns into a supernova. Mauritius still not under water!
Well – digest that! Comments welcome. Jon

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